Next Recession in 2020? What Will Be the Impact?

Economists and analysts know that the country has experienced economic growth for almost a decade. They also know that a recession can’t be too far off. A recent report by Zillow Research shed light on a survey conducted by Pulsenomics in which they asked economists, investment strategists and market analysts how they felt about the current housing market. That report revealed the possible timing of the next recession:

β€œExperts largely expect the next recession to begin in 2020.”

That timing concurs with a recent survey of economists by the Wall Street Journal:

β€œThe economic expansion that began in mid-2009 and already ranks as the second-longest in American history most likely will end in 2020 as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to cool off an overheating economy, according to forecasters surveyed.”

The graph A) is comparing the opinions of those surveyed by both the Wall Street Journal and Pulsenomics.

Recession DOES NOT Equal Housing Crisis

According to the Merriam-Webster Dictionary, a recession is defined as follows:

β€œA period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.”

A recession means the economy has slowed down markedly. It does not mean we are experiencing another housing crisis. Obviously, the housing crash of 2008 caused the last recession. However, during the previous five recessions home values appreciated. (graph B)

According to the experts surveyed by Pulsenomics, the top three probable triggers for the next recession are:

♦ Monetary policy
♦ Trade policy
♦ A stock market correction

A housing market correction was ranked ninth in probability. Those same experts also projected that home values would continue to appreciate in 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Others agree that housing will not be impacted like it was a decade ago.

Mark Fleming, First American’s Chief Economist, explained:

β€œIf a recession is to occur, it is unlikely to be caused by housing-related activity, and therefore the housing sector should be one of the leading sources to come out of the recession.”

And U.S. News and World Report agreed:

β€œFortunately – and hopefully – the history of recessions and current issues that could harm the economy don’t lead many to believe the housing market crash will repeat itself in an upcoming decline.”

Bottom Line

A recession is probably less than two years away. A housing crisis is not. Please contact us if you have more questions or comments about this or other Real Estate topics.

 

Ady Simion Call/Text at (626) 607-8652 or email me at Ady@AdySimion.com

Click here…to check your home value in seconds!

Click here…to search great deals, foreclosures and short sales in your area.

 

About Ady Simion (Realtor and Public Notary)

Ady Simion was named in the Top 1% of all agents for NRT LLC a subsidiary of Realogy that operates a variety of real estate offices under brands such as Coldwell Banker, Sotheby's International Realty, Century 21, The Corcoran Group, and the technology-based brokerages ZipRealty and Climb Real Estate. NRT has 787 offices and 47,000 sales associates. Selling and buying property can be very stressful but with the right agent it can be profitable and a fun experience. Ady is also a Notary Public and being a people person he wants to help negotiate for his clients making their transactions as smooth as possible. Ady’s goals are simple: He wants to be the best source of information on the Los Angeles area Real Estate market, as he assists clients through each transaction with care and professionalism. He is proud of his large referral base of clients who have placed their trust in him over the years. Why him, when there are so many good people out there?!?! β€’ Sellers will have their property exposed to the largest team of sales professionals in the world by far. Coldwell Banker Agents sale more homes than anyone else. β€’ Buyers will have the opportunity to view more properties exclusively. β€’ And most importantly when you hire him you get a whole team working for you not just β€œonly one person”. Ady Simion started his Professional Career as an Insurance Agent, and then mastered the Mortgage Industry focusing on helping buyers and sellers achieve their life dreams. He now is an Agent with the Largest Residential Real Estate Company in the nation and the world, Coldwell Banker, at the Pasadena office which is the leader in the areas in which he specializes. After finishing College Ady has consistently been a Top Producer in every office/business he worked at. He speaks English, Romanian and Spanish. Real Estate is constantly changing and working with an agent that has been involved in the Real Estate buying/selling process most of his life is always beneficial for clients. Call, text or e-mail him or just stop by to say Hi and ask any real estate questions you may have.

Posted on November 6, 2018, in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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